Overseas smart money accelerates the layout of ten foreign institutions to talk about new possibilities for A shares
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⊙ Reporter Wang Peng ○ Editor Wu 杭州夜生活网 Xiaojing In the past 2019, overseas funds accelerated to flow into A shares.
According to the preliminary latest published data, as of the end of 2019, overseas institutions and individuals held domestic shares2.
1 trillion yuan, the market value of positions has increased significantly by 82 compared to the end of 2018.
Large international top asset management companies have stepped up their efforts in the Chinese market.
According to statistics, as of the end of 2019, 23 foreign private placements have been registered with the China Fund Industry Association, and a total of 65 funds have been issued.
In addition, the application for public offering licenses of some institutions is also in full swing.
In the eyes of these international asset management giants, the huge Chinese capital market has the possibility of being difficult to ignore.
So, after 杭州桑拿 experiencing a continuous sweep of goods in 2019, how do foreign countries view the trend of the A-share market in 2020?
What areas of investment opportunities do they focus on?
Lu Wenjie, BlackRock China investment strategist, China’s economic growth model has clearly shifted from “investment + export” to “domestic demand + service industry”. The corresponding structural change in the stock market has been quite obvious, and relevant companies will naturally benefit from it.
In the past, companies needed to drive revenue growth through capacity expansion investments, which consumed most of their cash flow.
In this way, the dividends left to shareholders are reduced, and the inherent value of the company is therefore greatly changed.
However, this phenomenon has begun to change: companies are no longer simply pursuing the sexual expansion that they are pursuing, they are even more actively using technology to expand the market, improve products and reduce costs. The quality of profit growth has obviously increased, and investors have reasons to expect long-term stability.Return on investment.
In fact, China continues to carry out reforms at the same time, focusing on the broader and more modern side.
The Chinese government is paying more and more attention to tax reduction and public service policies that are beneficial to citizens, as well as issues such as technology and environmental protection. The policy direction of social welfare and technological progress is conducive to stimulating domestic consumption and promoting long-term development.
Given the sheer size and uniqueness of the A-share market, we believe that it is emerging from emerging markets and will eventually develop into a separate asset class.
Combining the above analysis and the current reasonable estimates, we believe that now is a good time to catch the Dongfeng of the A-share market and capture its investment income.
Wang Qian, chief economist of the Asia-Pacific region of Vanguard Group’s investment strategy and research department, is currently reducing the overall return on global assets.
According to Vanguard’s model, the average return on the US stock market in US dollars in the next 10 years is expected to be 3.
5%, non-US stock market returns 6.
5%, while the A-share denominated return is 7.
5%, which is also the reason why potential foreign countries are so enthusiastic about the Chinese market.
Vanguard Group, as a long-term strategic investor, also actively deployed the Chinese market. Before MSCI divided the A-share index, it has started to invest in the Chinese A-share market since 2015.
From the perspective of long-term strategic asset allocation, China’s economic growth is an important part of the world economy that cannot be ignored, and the Chinese economic cycle does not completely coincide with the global economic cycle. Investing in the A-share market can effectively improve global investment returns and diversify risks.
For A shares, although low interest rates and a low inflation economic environment can still support relatively high valuations, investors may need to adjust their expectations accordingly. The return on investment in 2020 may not be as good as the performance in 2019, and there may be a range ofVolatility.
Zhou Wenqun, head of equity investment and fund manager of Fidelity International China, looking forward to 2020, I think the global economy will enter a periodical cycle of weak recovery.
China ‘s economic growth has shifted from “quantity” to “quality”. Structural improvements are ongoing and growth will be more stable; including the expansion of the scope of the pilot registration system and reform dividends such as the new securities law will also help to ensure the health of the stock market.Development; in addition, the downward environment of overall interest rates will continue to support the growth of the stock market.
From the perspective of global allocation, considering the stability of China’s economy, the global attractiveness of the A-share market is still relatively obvious, so the trend of inflows into the A-share market will continue, especially active capital inflows.
In the short term, I am more optimistic about cyclical stocks that have increased concentration in the industry.
With the improvement of the surrounding environment and the stabilization of internal growth this year, the capital expenditure cycle will begin, which is relatively conducive to the manufacturing sector.
In addition, I also pay more attention to optional consumption and industrial robots.
In the long run, I am optimistic about the three themes of high-end manufacturing, consumer upgrades, and technology controllability.
However, the science and technology sector with autonomous and controllable concepts has grown too fast recently, and may have limited attractiveness in the short term due to estimates being too high, but there is still room for development in the long term. Zhu Chaoping, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, benefited from the continued stability of the economy and the continued opening of the capital market. A shares are expected to continue to rise this year.
More importantly, through the continuous increase of per capita income, structural changes in China’s economy will bring richer long-term investment opportunities.
The needs of middle-income people in specific consumer products, technology products, health care, financial services and other aspects will continue to grow, and investors have the opportunity to continue to enjoy the growth dividends brought by market expansion and technological progress.
Lin Huatang, Manager of China Unicom’s China Equity Portfolio, looks forward to 2020. Investment estimates and policy support will continue to create investment opportunities for A shares.
Lianbo believes that investors can find high-quality investment targets in various industries.
For example, the science and technology and telecommunications sector is one of the directions worth paying attention to. The world has entered the 5G era, and infrastructure and application development have become the highlight of this year’s technology industry in major countries.
For traditional industries, fiscal stimulus policies will drive infrastructure investment and are expected to continue to support the performance of the machinery and equipment industry.
New industrial machinery and equipment must meet the latest exhaust emission standards in 2020, so the industry still has a need for replacement.
For the home appliance industry, after experiencing fierce competition and industry mergers over the past 10 years, manufacturers’ operating efficiency has generally improved, coupled with the huge domestic demand market support, Chinese manufacturers have now leapt to the top of the global home appliance industry.
Lu Bomai China’s director of stock investment Meng Ning, for 2020, can be divided into two halves.
The first half of the year can be called a “honeymoon period”, and uncertainty increased in the second half.
Vanguard is determined by three core factors: economic fundamentals, market liquidity, and estimated levels.
Judging from the estimated level, the CSI 300 Index is currently 12.
The estimate of 5 is slightly above the historical median.
But considering market sentiment is improving, this level of estimation is also acceptable.
In the first half of the year, we may also lean towards growth sectors, replacing new energy, wind power, solar energy, and advanced equipment.
Uncertainty increased in the second half of the year.
As the market’s estimated level is not low, the market has transformed from refining in 2019 to pursuing profitability in 2020.
Therefore, whether the annual and semi-annual earnings performance of the company can meet expectations and exceed expectations is an issue that needs attention.
There will be opportunities in 2020, but the focus will be different.
We will pay more attention to partial stability and adjust the estimates to a more reasonable sector.
Baring China’s equity investment manager Jiang Zhenghao benefited from consumption upgrades and the gradual release of the effects of active fiscal policies. Baring is optimistic about the profit prospects of Chinese companies. The profit prospects of Chinese companies have entered a stage of stability or even improvement from 2020 to 2021.
In terms of industry, companies that benefit from technological upgrades, environmental protection megatrends, and structural reforms are optimistic. Therefore, some new economies and new energy industries can be bullish.
In addition, mobile phone device updates and application scenario expansion brought by the new 5G cycle bring new profit growth points for listed companies, which are still investment opportunities that we are very concerned about.
The new application scenarios will bring changes in the demand for electronic products and hardware equipment. We are optimistic about the profit growth brought by listed companies to the progress of technology.
Li Tao, the general manager of Futon Investment Management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. My 2019 New Year’s message ends with the sentence: “After the cold winter of 2018, the snowy mountains of Lushan are even more beautiful!
“In 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 22.
30%, and the market trend is exactly as stated in the message “not a quiet, obvious year.”
In fact, this is not because there is any so-called “crystal ball”, but just judging by common sense.
This year marks the end of China’s well-off society.
After the residents’ accumulation of wealth, how to guide the rational allocation of wealth to further promote economic development has also become the focus of the government’s next step.
When the market system is more transparent, the tools are more abundant, and the investor structure is more optimized, the social composition of the direct financing of the securities market can be better exerted, and the wealth effect of the securities market can be more reflected.
Value Partners Group Investment Director and China Business President Yu Xiaobo stands at the starting point of 2020. We believe that the A-share market is accelerating towards transformation, institutionalization, and professionalism.
China A shares are expected to become one of the most important asset classes.
Almost overseas developed economies mainly rely on the stimulation of monetary policy. Based on the accumulated experience in the past, China has gradually adopted various combinations of policies such as optimizing supply, reducing taxes and fees, simplifying government decentralization, and stabilizing the credit environment.The synergy between the “steady growth” and the long-term “structural adjustment” policy objectives has continued to increase, and forms the basis for the long-term healthy development of the Chinese economy.
On this basis, the size of China’s capital market has continued to increase in 2019. The implementation of certain market-oriented reform policies has provided a strong institutional guarantee for the depth of the capital market and long-term development.
The improvement of the system and the diversification of market participants will greatly promote the further optimization of the ecological structure of China’s capital market and make the entire capital market sustainable.
We believe that the stock market will become the most important asset allocation path for Chinese residents and institutions in the future.
At present, the estimated level of China’s stock market is still sufficient, and the implied endogenous rate of return is attractive in large global assets.
We believe that the reform and maturity of the Chinese stock market is a historic investment prospect. Li Wenjie, research director and head of investment of Schroder China A-shares, although foreign countries may not transfer as in 2019, but a stable and better economic background will support the stock market.
In addition, the new securities law reform came into effect in March. A more standardized capital market will improve the quality of listed companies, the fiery enthusiasm of the science and technology board and the vitality brought by the new industry, and ultimately create better value for investors.This year’s performance is worth looking forward to.
In terms of industry, some electronics stocks that rose sharply last year have some bubbles, and the high ones may not be a good time to step in.
At this stage, some cyclical industries and individual stocks may be attractive.
In addition, in the upstream and downstream areas of 5G, the field of new energy vehicle industry chain also deserves continuous attention.
In the new year, I wish all investors a good year of the Rat and a smooth investment!