Shanghai Petrochemical (600688): 4Q19 results are in line with expectations; earnings may have bottomed out but there is still limited upside

Shanghai Petrochemical (600688): 4Q19 results are in line with expectations; earnings may have bottomed out but there is still limited upside

It is predicted that the profit of 2019 will decrease by 55% -61% year-on-year. Shanghai Petrochemical has released the announcement of the 2019 annual results reduction and main operating data, and it is expected to 北京养生会所 realize the net profit attributable to mothers.

3-23.

9 trillion, a year-on-year decline of 55% -61%, in line with market consensus expectations.

Implied net profit attributable to mothers in 4Q195.

1-8.

700 million, an increase of -4% -63%.

In the fourth quarter of 19, the sales volume of major products increased by 2% month-on-month, and the cost of crude oil processing was basically flat, while the price of Brent crude oil rose by 1% during the period, which meant that the problem of high crude oil processing costs of the company slightly improved;Prices fell by 1% month-on-month, which was mainly dragged down by the 4Q19 chemical prices’ continued decline.

At least 2019, the company’s crude oil processing volume exceeded 1,500 tons, meeting the production plan index, reaching the second highest load in history; the total output of gasoline and diesel coal reached 919 microns, which was slightly lower than the 936-inch production plan, mainly because the company adjusted last yearPart of the diesel production was reduced for the trial production of marine fuel oil; the volume output exceeded the plan by 101, mainly because the company cut a part of the polycarbonate production for increased polyethylene production; last year, the cost of crude oil processing decreased by 2%, while the same periodThe price of Brent crude oil fell by 11%, which was mainly affected by the narrowing of the international heavy and light crude oil price spread, and it was also one of the reasons that caused the company’s performance to be obvious.

Points of Attention The dividend payout rate in 2019 may still be maintained at about 50%.

Taking into account the company’s substantial profit growth in 2019 and the company’s long-term layout of carbon fiber production line expansion, we do not expect the company to increase its dividend distribution rate and maintain it at about 50%, which is about 1.1 billion in revenue, corresponding to A / H latest closing price dividend yield is about 2.

5% / 5.

0%.

In 2020, the output of marine fuel oil may increase significantly.

Considering that the state encourages state-owned petrochemical enterprises to export fuel oil through the general trade tax rebate policy, and that the company has taken the lead in opening the process route for the production of low-sulfur marine fuel oil, we expect that the company’s low-sulfur marine fuel oil production will be significantly increased in 2020,To 40-50 constants (284-355 million barrels, press 7.

1 ton barrel ratio).

We expect that the low-sulfur marine fuel oil after tax rebate is expected to increase by US $ 7 / barrel over diesel, which is expected to contribute to a pre-tax profit increase of US $ 1,988-2,485,000.

Pay attention to the trend of crude oil processing costs.

We judge that the price of chemical products may still be under pressure in 2020. The fundamental uncertainty is whether the company’s high crude oil processing costs can be improved.

We think this year ‘s problem is better than last year ‘s expectations, mainly because the price gap between heavy and light crude oil has basically bottomed out, and there is little room for further increase in shipping costs.

Estimates and recommendations lower the 2019 profit forecast by 13% to 0.

20 yuan, maintaining the 20-year profit forecast unchanged, dating 21 years profit 0.

19 yuan.

Maintain A / H target price of 4.

0 yuan / 2.

5 construction is unchanged, corresponding to 1.

4 times / 0.

8 times 20-year P / B ratio and 1% / 13% upside.

Maintain “Neutral” rating for both cities.

A / H currently corresponds to 1, respectively.

4 times / 0.

6 times P / B ratio in 2020.

Risk Oil prices fluctuated sharply; processing costs continued to rise; and the prosperity of the refining and chemical industry gradually deteriorated.