Hairong Cold Chain (603187): The intrinsic value of the global consumer cold chain leader is underestimated
Investment logic supplies global consumer cold chain leaders, and historical operating performance is stable.
The company’s main business is customized commercial freezer display cabinets, refrigerated display cabinets, commercial supermarket display cabinets and commercial intelligent sales containers. The main customers are Unilever, Yili, Mengniu, Nongfu Spring, Nestle, Sanquan, Miss, MeiyijiaYonghui supermarket and so on.
Revenue from 2012 3.
4 trillion increased to December 2018.
1 ppm, CAGR = 24%, net profit from 2012 0.
1.6 billion to 2018 1.
4 ppm, CAGR = 43%; ROE (diluted) was 11% in 2018, and gross profit margin continued to increase to 34%.
Emerging and non-standardized lead the rapid growth of commercial display cabinets.
Downstream of the company are giants in the global consumer industry such as cold drinks and dairy products, which have weak economic cycles and large consumption-related attributes.
(1) Industry growth: Cold drinks just need consumption-driven 3?
5 years of renewed demand, increased industry customization, and supplementary demand brought about by the rise of new business models of convenience stores and smart retail; (2) company growth: adapt to the growth of customers with different needs in downstream segments, existing customersShares continued to increase, and customers ‘additional capital expenditures increased.
The global scale of freeze and refrigerated display cabinets is 5.18 million and 12.4 million units, with a total market capacity of USD 50 billion. In 2018, the company’s sales of freeze and refrigerated display cabinets were 400,000 and 120,000, with a market share of 8% and 1%, 20,000 supermarket display cabinets and smart retail display cabinets.
Since last year, domestic cold drink downstream customers such as Yili and Mengniu have increased their presence in foreign markets, and the company has collaborated with customers to implement the “go global” strategy. At the 重庆耍耍网 same time, global brand customers have also increased their purchases in foreign markets, and orders have increased significantly.In addition, the continued market expansion of refrigerated cabinets and commercial supermarket display cabinets contributed new growth points for the company.
The company’s competitive advantage lies in its customized capabilities that are highly matched to customer needs.
Traditional commercial freezers and refrigerators are mainly compatible with white-electricity enterprises. The company develops and designs customized products that are highly matched to customer needs for different downstream sub-sectors, different customers, and different product areas. Professional services are provided asThe customer sells the means of production and part of the market’s core competitiveness.
The company has continuously accumulated industry experience since its establishment in 2006, and has developed more than 100 different product lines. At the same time, the flexible production mode of mixed lines has improved the rapid response efficiency for customer needs.
The company continues to develop new products that are specialized, differentiated and customized to meet customer needs and maintain better profitability.
Profit forecast and estimate 19?
In 21 years, the company’s net profit was 2.
200 million, an annual increase of 49% / 24% / 24%; EPS is 1.
9 yuan; PE is 20/16/13 times, with reference to comparable companies, giving 20 times PE estimates next year, 6?
12-month target price of 45.
9 yuan, give “overweight” rating.
Risk reminders: The impact of the Sino-US trade war on North American business has increased; new product growth in European markets has fallen short of expectations; cold storage and supermarket expansion have fallen short of expectations; the company’s 56 million restricted shares were lifted on November 29, 2019.